To say that the relationship between Nate Silver and the political betting markets has been somewhat ambiguous would be something of an understatement. Back in 2016,
it seemed to all the world that Silver was quite happy to cosy up to the political betting markets - to the extent that he was happy to tweet to his then two million followers
that his predictions and those in the big political betting markets were mirroring one another.
Roll forward to the 2020 US Presidential Election and the relationship between Silver and the Political Betting Markets appears to have broken down completely, with Silver tweeting the following to his now 3.6 million followers: "Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect."
Back In July 2020 Nate Silver took another pop at the political betting markets - citing a lack of liquidity as being one of his reasons as to why they are highly irrational -
at the time of writing there has been two hundred and twenty nine million pounds traded on the Betfair - USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President Betting Market.
@FiveThirtyEight's latest forecast says that there is a 10% chance Trump wins and that even a 2016-style polling error wouldn’t be enough for him to do so.."As of right now, Biden’s lead is large enough that Trump’s chances of winning are 10 percent, considerably lower than the 35 percent chance he had at this point in 2016."
The Betfair Betting Exchange Political Betting Market still has the implied probability of Trump winning at 30% - you decide!