The Tories need to beat Labour by nine points or more to be certain of winning a clear working majority in the Commons. Our own internal
model has them currently with a nine point lead compared with a YouGOV poll on 17 November which give the Tories a 17 point lead ( Multilevel Regression and Poststratification.) The backdrop to the 2019 United Kingdom General Election is that more voters have become promiscuous - prepared to switch their votes from one party to another at the drop of a hat - in response to political events such as Brexit. On the back of this, all of the usual caveats apply regarding volatility, churn, polling error, tactical voting, campaign swings/or lack of, (simplicty of the uniform national swing model), failure to weight for education, age group, new voters, residual idiosyncratic variation across the marginal seats, illimitable complexity.
Nothing about the very obvious insider dealing on Betfair ahead of the Brexit Party's announcement that it will not contest
Tory held seats. Betfair will of course know who it was that was trading in the betting market on the event between 10pm and 6am,
and the subsequent hours leading up to the announcement.
UK Next General Election - Overall Majority Betting Market
No Overall Majority
The 2017 UK General Election represented the final nail in the coffin for so-called prediction markets, which had been sold on the basis that they were a form of modern day oracle - a narrative that the media was quite happy to go along with. On the eve of the poll, the implied probability
of a Conservative majority on Betfair was 87%. The betting market also suggested a Conservative majority of between 75-99 seats.
As regards the polls, in their final published poll ICM put the Tories on 45%, a 11% lead on Labour. ComRes predicted the Tories would score 44% and achieve a 10-point lead over Labour, whilst BMG Research put the Conservatives on 46% and achieving a 13% lead over Labour. YouGov put the Tories seven points clear of Labour as did Opinium. The prize went to Survation who put the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 40%, very close to the actual result. Their poll was simply ignored by the traders in the betting market.
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Pasteur (1854) "chance favors only the prepared mind."