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Spread Betting Explained



Spread betting offers the horse racing punter a veritable melange of ways in which to bet on the outcome of a race, or all the races on a particular card; such as backing or opposing the favourites, individual match bets, or backing or opposing individual jockeys. In many instances, there is greater value to be had through betting the spread, compared with taking a price with a fixed odds bookmaker.

In the instance of a sixteen runner handicap, the spread firms would run a 50:30:20:10 index, with 50 points going to the winner, 30 to the second, 20 to the third and 10 for the fourth placed horse. However, in handicaps with less than sixteen runners, and indeed, most other races, the likes of IG Sport also run indices paying out for the first four home.

The different points systems on offer for second, third and often, fourth, mean that the punters are often able to achieve a better return on their selection, than they would have got if they had placed normal each way bets at fixed odds with the traditional bookmakers or the Tote.

A further advantage that spread betting affords the horse racing punter, is the ability to arbitrage differentials which may exist between the Racing Post favourites index and the standard favourites index.

Let us now also look at the example of football. The various spread betting firms will quote different 'spreads' for different scenarios; the time of the first goal; the goal margin between the two teams; the number of yellow/red cards that will be shown during a match; the total number of corners taken during a game, etc...

As an example, let us take a look at Sporting Index's 100:75:50:25:10 index on the 2006 World Cup. On their main tournament performance market Sporting award the Winner 100pts, the Runner-Up 75pts, Losing Semi-Finalists 50pts, and Losing Quarter-Finalists 25pts, Last 16 10pts, and All Others = 0pts.

Sporting's current quote on England is 32-35. Those that think that the Three Lions can go all the way, are able to buy the spread at 35, for say £10 a point. Were England to be victorious, they would be awarded 100 points, and the punter would net a profit of (100-35) x 10 = £650.

If England were to finish second, they would be awarded 75 points and our hypothetical punter who had staked £10 on them would net a profit of (75-35) x 10 = £400.

Conversely, if our punter believed that England were going to get knocked out at the quarter final stage, he could have sold the spread at 32; again, say to £10 a point. Were England to have got knocked out at this stage and been awarded 25 points, he would win £70 (32-25 = 7, 7 x £10 = £70.), the difference between the lower end of the spread quoted and the points that England were actually awarded.

Taking the example of the time that the first goal is scored. Spread betting firm A is offering a spread of 28-31 minutes. If you believe that the first goal will come after the 31st minute, you 'buy the spread' at a fixed price, let's say £100 a minute. If you are right and the first goal does not come until the 60th minute, you win £2900, i.e. the difference between the top end of the spread (31 minutes) and the actual time that the first goal was scored (60 minute) = a difference of 29 minutes.

60 (minutes) - 31 (minutes) = 29 - £100 x 29 = £2900

However, had the goal been scored in the 15th minute, you would have lost £1600, because the difference between the top end of the spread (31 minutes) at which you bought, and the actual minute the goal was scored (15 minutes) = 16 minutes.

31 (minutes) - 15 (minutes) = 16 - £100 x 16 = £1600

By way of comparison, if you had thought that the first goal was going to be scored before the bottom level of the spread (eg before the 28 minute), you could have 'sold the spread'. So you would have been in the money if the goal had been scored in the 15th minute, to the tune of £13000, or you would have been down to the tune of £32,000 if the goal had not been scored until the 60th minute. Of course, the ability to apply stop losses and to trade out of ones position in running, will usually prevent such a disaster from occuring.


In recent times, the spread betting markets have caught the attention of academics. Twomey, for example, writing in the Vaughan Williams edited "Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets" observes a number of instances where it may be possible to exploit the fact that spread betting firms do not always respond to changes in the fixed odds market.

In the same book, Vaughan Williams himself puts forward the notion of "Qarbs" - quasi arbitrage opportunities, whereby one is able to exploit price differentials amongst the various spead betting companies. Interestingly, the apparent success of his Qarb strategy leads him to conclude that;

"This finding casts doubt on a hypothesis that market-makers who set quotes out of line with the prevailing market view do so because they possess better (even privileged) information, or that they are able to process a given set of information more effectively than the market as a whole."

Further analysis of spread betting markets by Vaughan Williams, and Vaughan Williams and Paton, has suggested that the mean of the mid-points of the spreads of all the spread betting companies offering a market, may in many instances provide the best indicator of the objective probability of occurence of a defined outcome.





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