The brilliant filly Treve is now a best-priced 6/4 favourite with les bookmakers anglais for a third successive win in the Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe, which will be run at Longchamp on October 4 2015.
The draw still matters, with only two winners in the last twelve years (Dalakhani and Treve) racing from a stall number higher than nine.
Stall one is a coffin box and only one horse (Carroll House Drawn 16) has managed to win from a draw higher than 15 in the last twenty six years, and that was on good ground. Whereas a brilliant horse may win from a poor draw, a moderate horse will most certainly not. Tactically, Golden Horn is going to encounter problems from stall 14.
Horses drawn in stalls two, four, six and seven have won fifteen of the last twenty seven running of the race; a strike rate of 55%.
This year, these stall numbers have been allotted to rank outsiders, with Erupt (stall 4) the shortest in the market at 33/1 (expect to see this price vanish).
Fourteen of the last twenty eight runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained, three year olds. In recent times, this trend has been on the wane.
Sixteen of the last twenty one runnings of the race have been won by horses aged three. The last five year old winner of the race was Marienbard in 2002, whilst the last four year old to triumph was Treve in 2014.
Four year olds have won fifteen of the last forty two runnings of the race,
giving them a strike rate of 36%. Five four year olds have won in the last twenty two years; a strike rate of 22%. There have been just eight winners aged 5+ since the first running in 1920, with Marienbard in 2002, the last five year old winner of the race.
The domination of three year olds in the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe can be partly atrributed to the fact that they get a significant weight allowance compared with the older horses that run in the race. Three year old fillies are asked to race of only 8-8, whilst three year old colts are asked to carry 8-11. This compares with older fillies who are asked to race off 9-2, with the older colts on 9-5.
Horses above the age of five and those that have been peaked to take in mid Summer races such as the King George, do not have a great record in the race. A notable exception to the latter trend, was the 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars, who won both the Juddmonte at York and the Coral Eclipse, before going on to land the Arc. Workforce, the 2010 Arc winner was trounced in the King George before he went on to take the Arc. No horse has ever won both the St Leger and Arc in the same season.
It is simply wrong to repeat the old myth that fillies have a poor record in the race. Everything is relative and a strike rate of six winners from the last twenty two runnings of the race (27%) (Urban Sea, Zarkava, Danedream, Solemia, Treve (twice))is impressive, not least, when one considers that there are usually no more than one or two fillies in the race each year.
The 2006 winner Rail Link gave the master trainer Andre Fabre a record-breaking seventh victory in the race; Trempolino (1987), Subotica (1992), Carnegie (1994), Peintre Celebre (1997), Sagamix (1998), Hurricane Run (2005), Rail Link (2006). All Fabre's Arc winners won the Prix Niel, except Peintre Celebre who finished second in that race. In recent years, whilst not winning the race, he has had a number of horses that have hit the frame at big prices. In a nutshell, never ever discount a Fabre runner in the Arc. The easy Prix Niel winner New Bay
is the main representative of the master of Chantilly in the 2014 renewal.
The last horse to complete the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe double was Treve in 2014. Before that the feat was achieved by the Lester Piggot ridden Alleged, in 1978, and in 1956 by the brilliant Ribot.
Fourteen of the last nineteen winners of the Arc had run in one of the Arc trials, with the Prix Niel clearly the most signifciant of the lot. It should be noted, however, that whilst the last eight three-year-old winners of the Arc had all contested the Prix Niel, not all had actually won that trial. The 2004 Arc winner Bago, finished third in the Niel, having earlier in the season also landed the Grand Prix de Paris. The last time a horse did the Niel/Arc double was in 2006.
In the last thirty odd years, three horses have won the Prix Vermeille and the Arc in the same season; Three Troikas in 1979, Zarkava in 2008, and the brilliant Treve in 2013.
The Arc winner has not prepped in the Prix Foy, however, since 1992. This trend is set to continue with the 2015 winner of the race Postponed not now going to take his place in the Arc.
Since the brilliant Sea Bird landed the Arc/Epsom Derby double in 1965, twenty two other horses have attempted to pull off the double. Five have managed to imitate Sea Bird; the peerless Mill Reef (1971); Lammtarra (1995), Sinndar (2000) Sea the Stars (2009) and Workforce (2010) - a 23% strike rate. Of those twenty two, four were also placed in the Arc; Sir Ivor ( second 1968), Nijinski (second in 1970), Troy (third 1979) and O'Brien's High Chaparral (third in 2002). This gives us a win and place strike rate of 40% for Epsom Derby winners attempting the Arc double.
The master of Ballydoyle Aiden O'Brien won the Arc in 2007 with Dylan Thomas. On a percentage basis his record in the race is not great, not least because his horses have tended to peak in mid-season races.
Godolphin have won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe three times, with; 1995 Lammtarra, 2001 Sakhee and 2002 - Marienbard.
Of those jockeys still riding, Olivier Peslier and Thierry Jarnet are the most successful Arc riders, winning it four times. Dettori has won it three times, whilst Kieren Fallon and Christophe Soumillon have each won the race twice.
The 1990 winner of the Arc Saumarez, was one of the few winners of the race to have never raced over 12fs prior to landing the race, whilst 1993 winner Urban Sea, and the 2004 winner Bago had both raced over, but not won over the trip, prior to their respective victories.
Contrary to the mutterings of so called horse racing expert Nick Mordin, horses do get beaten in the Arc and come back to win it the following year, as per the great Tony Bin, who finished second to Trempolino in 1987, before coming back to win it in 1988, aged
five. Rainbow Quest finished almost last in the 1984 Arc, before coming back to win it in 1985 on the disqualification of the French runner Sagace.
Japanese trained horses have tended to reward their legion of supporters, with big runs on the day. El Condor Pasa (1999) and Nakayama Festa (2010) finished second, whilst the heaily supported Deep Impact finished third in 2006 (later disqualified). Orfevre was something of an unlucky loser in 2012, beaten by the draw, and the tactical nous of Arc specialist Peslier aboard the winner. Drawn 8 in the 2013 renewal he ran a game race to finish second behind Treve. Harp Star finished sixth in the 2014 renewal.
On a strict reading, the draw has presented us with a two horse race: Treve v. New Bay. Regarding Treve the concern must be that she may bounce, following a stunning perfomance in the Vermeille. Fabre' record speaks for itself.
To cite this article: Niall O'Connor (2015) "Prix De L Arc De Triomphe Statistics" All Rights Reserved. 2015. Please link to this article; copy and paste of entire article strictly forbidden.