Postponed is now a best-priced 7/4 favourite with les bookmakers anglais to win the 2016 Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe, which will be run at Chantilly on October 2 2016. Postponed stretched his unbeaten run to six races including four Group 1 wins spread over 13 months when he landed the Juddmonte International at York in August under regular pilot Andrea Atzeni.
An analysis of races run at Chantilly over a distance of 1m 4f over a thirty year period reveals
a positive bias towards horses that are drawn in the following stalls positions; 2,4,8,10 and 13. In fields of
ten or more runners, it is notable that horses that are drawn in the middle often suffer because of a
very notable concertina effect. Stall one is a coffin box ,and those drawn higher than 13, often only get
into contention when it is too late.
As regards the 2016 running of the race, the following horses have been
handed what we consider to be the better performing stall numbers (the three year old Silverwave and Fabre's New Bay are the two that are most liked to be supported in the betting market at the prices (note that Ladbrokes are only 7/1 New Bay against 14/1 on Betfair):
2016 Prix De L Arc De Triomphe Draw
The Grey Gatsby
One Foot in Heaven
With Posptponed and Harzand drawn next to each other in stalls six and seven, tactics will be everything.
Running style, suggests that Postponed may try and boss affairs from his stall position, in the process, escaping
any potential concertina effect. The big question then, is what Smullen will do aboard Harzand. New Bay, a very
big 12/1 in the betting market is well drawn to capitalise upon any errors, misjudgements or bits of bad luck that
the front two in the betting market may encounter. Expect to see Makahiki come flying at the death.
Fourteen of the last twenty nine runnings of the Arc were won by lightly raced, strongly fancied French trained, three year olds. In recent times, this trend has been on the wane.
Seventeen of the last twenty two runnings of the race have been won by horses aged three, giving them a strike rate of 77%. The last five year old winner of the race was Marienbard in 2002, whilst the last four year old to triumph was Treve in 2014.
Four year olds have won fifteen of the last forty four runnings of the race,
giving them a strike rate of 34%. Five four year olds have won in the last twenty three years; a strike rate of 22%. There have been just eight winners aged 5+ since the first running in 1920, with Marienbard in 2002, the last five year old winner of the race.
The domination of three year olds in the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe can be partly atrributed to the fact that they get a significant weight allowance compared with the older horses that run in the race. Three year old fillies are asked to race of only 8-8, whilst three year old colts are asked to carry 8-11. This compares with older fillies who are asked to race off 9-2, with the older colts on 9-5.
Horses above the age of five and those that have been peaked to take in mid Summer races such as the King George, do not have a great record in the race. A notable exception to the latter trend, was the 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars, who won both the Juddmonte at York and the Coral Eclipse, before going on to land the Arc. Workforce, the 2010 Arc winner was trounced in the King George before he went on to take the Arc. No horse has ever won both the St Leger and Arc in the same season.
It is simply wrong to repeat the old myth that fillies have a poor record in the race. Everything is relative and a strike rate of six winners from the last twenty four runnings of the race (25%) (Urban Sea, Zarkava, Danedream, Solemia, Treve (twice))is impressive, not least, when one considers that there are usually no more than one or two fillies in the race each year.
The 2006 winner Rail Link gave the master trainer Andre Fabre a record-breaking seventh victory in the race; Trempolino (1987), Subotica (1992), Carnegie (1994), Peintre Celebre (1997), Sagamix (1998), Hurricane Run (2005), Rail Link (2006). All Fabre's Arc winners won the Prix Niel, except Peintre Celebre who finished second in that race. In recent years, whilst not winning the race, he has had a number of horses that have hit the frame at big prices. In a nutshell, never ever discount a Fabre runner in the Arc. The easy Prix Niel winner New Bay was the main representative of the master of Chantilly in the 2015 renewal, and finished a gallant third
behind easy winner Golden Horn - staying on well. Will turn out again in 2016 renewal and is handily drawn in stall 8.
The last horse to complete the Prix De L Arc De Triomphe double was Treve in 2014. Before that the feat was achieved by the Lester Piggot ridden Alleged, in 1978, and in 1956 by the brilliant Ribot.
Fourteen of the last twenty
winners of the Arc had run in one of the Arc trials, with the Prix Niel clearly the most signifciant of the lot. It should be noted, however, that whilst eight of the last nine three-year-old winners of the Arc had all contested the Prix Niel, not all had actually won that trial. The 2004 Arc winner Bago, finished third in the Niel, having earlier in the season also landed the Grand Prix de Paris. The last time a horse did the Niel/Arc double was way back in 2006.
In the last thirty odd years, three horses have won the Prix Vermeille and the Arc in the same season; Three Troikas in 1979, Zarkava in 2008, and the brilliant Treve in 2013.
The Arc winner has not prepped in the Prix Foy, however, since 1992.
Since the brilliant Sea Bird landed the Arc/Epsom Derby double in 1965, twenty three other horses have attempted to pull off the double. Six have managed to imitate Sea Bird; the peerless Mill Reef (1971); Lammtarra (1995), Sinndar (2000) Sea the Stars (2009) Workforce (2010) and Golden Horn (2015) - a 26% strike rate. Of those twenty three, four were also placed in the Arc; Sir Ivor ( second 1968), Nijinski (second in 1970), Troy (third 1979) and O'Brien's High Chaparral (third in 2002). This gives us a win and place strike rate of 43% for Epsom Derby winners attempting the Arc double.
The master of Ballydoyle Aiden O'Brien won the Arc in 2007 with Dylan Thomas. On a percentage basis his record in the race is not great, not least because his horses have tended to peak in mid-season races.
Godolphin have won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe three times, with; 1995 Lammtarra, 2001 Sakhee and 2002 - Marienbard.
Of those jockeys still riding, Olivier Peslier, Thierry Jarnet and Frankie Dettori are the most successful Arc riders, winning it four times each. Kieren Fallon and Christophe Soumillon have each won the race twice.
The 1990 winner of the Arc Saumarez, was one of the few winners of the race to have never raced over 12fs prior to landing the race, whilst 1993 winner Urban Sea, and the 2004 winner Bago had both raced over, but not won over the trip, prior to their respective victories.
Contrary to the mutterings of so called horse racing expert Nick Mordin, horses do get beaten in the Arc and come back to win it the following year, as per the great Tony Bin, who finished second to Trempolino in 1987, before coming back to win it in 1988, aged
five. Rainbow Quest finished almost last in the 1984 Arc, before coming back to win it in 1985 on the disqualification of the French runner Sagace. Again hope here for supporters of Fabre's New Bay who finished third in the 2015 renewal.
Japanese trained horses have tended to reward their legion of supporters, with big runs on the day. El Condor Pasa (1999) and Nakayama Festa (2010) finished second, whilst the heaily supported Deep Impact finished third in 2006 (later disqualified). Orfevre was something of an unlucky loser in 2012, beaten by the draw, and the tactical nous of Arc specialist Peslier aboard the winner. Drawn 8 in the 2013 renewal he ran a game race to finish second behind Treve. Harp Star finished sixth in the 2014 renewal. The highly progressive Makahiki represents Japan in the 2016 renewal, but seems to have got the worst of the draw.
To cite this article: Niall O'Connor (2015) "Prix De L Arc De Triomphe Statistics" All Rights Reserved. 2016. Please link to this article; copy and paste of entire article strictly forbidden.