In the tables below we look at the Intrade market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008, over a one month period.

Sadly, from our analysis, the impression that one gets is of a market that is spooked by poll results; driven by stale news; and heavily influenced by gossip and rumour.

In the table below we see the Intrade prediction market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 as of 10.45 GMT on December 3 2007. The market was betting that Clinton's probability of victory was 67%.

In the following table we see the Intrade prediction market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 as of 08.45 GMT on December 7 2007. Whilst the Intrade market had suggested on December 3 that Clinton's probability of victory was 67%, it was now suggesting that her probability of victory was 64.5%.

In the following tables we see the Intrade prediction market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 as of 18.20 GMT on December 10 2007. Whilst the Intrade market had suggested on December 7 that Clinton's probability of victory was 64.5%, it was now suggesting that her probability of victory was 61.5%.

In the following tables we see the Intrade prediction market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 as of 20.45 GMT on December 17 2007; two weeks after we first looked at the markets. During the past week, a poll released by the Davenport, Iowa, Quad City Times, had suggested that Obama had surged to a 9-point lead over Clinton in the race for the Iowa presidential caucus. Whilst the Intrade market had suggested on December 3 that Clinton's probability of victory was 67%, two weeks later that probability had fallen to 56.2.

In the following tables we see the Intrade prediction market on whether Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2008 as of 20.45 GMT on December 27 2007; ten days after we last looked at the market. We see that Clinton's fortunes seem to have taken a turn for the better and the market is betting that she has a 66.6% probability of becoming the Democratic presidential nominee.

The day before the New Hampshire caucas, and the market seems to have written Clinton off (alongside the likes of Justin Wolfers, Chris Masse et al...). Whilst the Intrade market had suggested on December 27 that Clinton's probability of victory was 66.6%, it was now suggesting that her probability of victory was a mere 22.5%.

The day after the New Hampshire caucas, and the market seems to have decided that Clinton should not be written off after all. Whilst only yesterday the Intrade market had suggested that Clinton's probability of victory was a mere 22.5%, it was now suggesting that her probability of victory was a mere 58.5%.

Clinton's victory in the New Hampshire caucas, will remain a muddy foot print on the white carpet of prediction market efficiency. As regards the Clinton democratic nominee markets themselves, in the short space of a month she has gone from being a near certainty to a hopeless has-been and then back to being a front-runner. Whichever ivory tower Justin Wolfers is currently stiing in, he will be sitting a lot less comfortable this afternoon...his beloved prediction markets are finally being exposed to the light...and they are being found wanting. Wisdom of crowds - you're having a laugh!

To cite this article: Niall.A.O'Connor (2007) "So this is Prediction Market Efficieny at work?". (Bettingmarket.Com) 2007.