Conspiracy of silence reigns over Irish betting market over-rounds
In the UK, the profit margin built into starting prices fell from 2.07 per cent per runner in September 2000 to 1.45 per cent per runner in September 2006. To some extent this can be attributed to Betfair, which curtailed the ability of the big bookmarkers' to manipulate starting prices, through blowing money back into the on-course market. Then, there were the odds-checking sites such as Oddschecker, which placed the big bookmakers on the same footing as numerous small entrants, and served to put pressure on industry margins by making prices more visible and encouraging a greater intensity of competition.
Despite the arrival of internet betting and the betting exchanges, the same situation has not been mirrored in Ireland, where the over-round per runner continues to operate at well over two per cent.
In the 2:25 at Clonmel, run on 1 November, the Powerstown Desmene Handicap Hurdle, the over-round per runner was 3.38. The 18 runner race was run by the VP Donoghue trained Jamie's Boy at 10/1. The favourite was Asian Royale trading at 7/1, with the outsider of the field, Deep Spell, trading at 33/1.
In the www.punchestown.com Handicap Hurdle (4yo+,81-116), run over 2m run at Punchestown on 31 October, the over-round per runner was 2.73. The 15 runner race was won by the Willie Mullins trained Viso at 6/1, with the biggest price on offer being shared by three horses at 25/1.
In the 4:15 at Down Royal, run on 2 November, the Archie Watson Memorial INH Flat Race (4-7yo), over 2m, the over-round per runner was 3.0. The eleven runner race was won by the Even money favourite Chateau D'eau. The outsider of the field Mr Forgetful, traded at 50/1, and finished a distance last.
In the 12:45 BetChronicle.com Fillies Maiden (2yo), run over 1m, at Leopardstown on 3 November, the over-round per runner was an astonishing 3.81! The field comprised of eleven runners. The race was won by the heavily backed favourite Simawa, returned at 11/10. The outsider of the field Zennu traded at 66/1. Six of the eleven runner field traded at 8/1 or less.
Whilst Irish bookmakers have managed to convey an image of being great risk takers, the truth is, that the huge over-rounds pertaining on almost every horse race run in Ireland, characterise them as being infinitely risk averse. They seemingly spend their entire time shielding against real or imagined insiders, who they believe to be better informed than they are.
The existence of such uncompetitive offerings, would, one would imagine, drive bettors towards the betting exchnages in their numbers, but strangely, this has not been the case to date. It would seem that the informed insiders are happy to play in betting markets exhibiting huge over-rounds, rather than reveal their hands on the betting exchanges. Accordingly, it is the punters in the Irish betting shops who suffer; many of whom know no better than to bet at SP.
An interesting aspect of the Irish betting market over the past eight years, has been the reluctance of bookmakers to embrace online betting; a fear of margin depletion being the most likely reason. Cashmans of Cork, one of the most high profile Irish bookmakers, shows no sign of making the leap online. Sean Graham came online and then went back off again. Eastwoods remain offline. Terry Rogers recently entered the fray, and Hacketts are coming back online, having dipped their toes in the water some time ago. BetChronicle now also have an online presence. The betting exchanges Betdaq and Betfair both operate in the Irish betting market.
The extent to which Irish punters are being ripped off when it comes to betting on horse racing, has been one of the great untold stories of recent times. Until now, something akin to a conspiracy of silence has reigned. Everybody knows the shocking over-rounds in operation in the Irish betting market, but everybody just puts up with it for fear of rattling the boat. Even Betfair and Betdaq seem somewhat reluctant to capitalise upon the issue. And as for the Irish journalists..... simply not a word (which perhaps comes as something of a surprise when one hears them proclaim that they have the punters' interests at heart).
In the tables below we look at four recent horse race meetings in Ireland. In the first table we look at the over-round per race. In Table two we break this down further and look at the key metric over-round per runner.
Table One:Over-round per race
| Race | Punchestown | Clonmel | DownRoyal | Leopardstown |
| First | 119 | 139 | 139 | 149 |
| Second | 151 | 146 | 146 | 142 |
| Third | 137 | 161 | 131 | 131 |
| Fourth | 140 | 128 | 117 | 150 |
| Fifth | 143 | 148 | 132 | 116 |
| Sixth | 142 | 131 | 133 | 148 |
| Seven | 136 | 151 | 133 | 163 |
| Average | 137.2 | 143.4 | 133 | 142.7 |
Prices were taken from the Punchestown meeting held on Wednesday 31 October 2007.
Clonmel prices were from the meeting on 1 November 2007. The prices for Down Royal were collected from the meeting there on 02 November 2007. The prices for Leopardstown were collected from the meeting there held on 03 November 2007.
Table Two - Over-round per runner
| Race | Punchestown | Clonmel | DownRoyal | Leopardstown |
| First | 2.11 | 2.30 | 2.05 | 2.88 |
| Second | 2.31 | 2.70 | 2.30 | 3.21 |
| Third | 2.31 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 2.21 |
| Fourth | 2.73 | 2.33 | 2.42 | 2.38 |
| Fifth | 2.38 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.28 |
| Sixth | 1.95 | 2.58 | 2.75 | 2.18 |
| Seven | 1.95 | 2.83 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| Average | 2.24 | 2.68 | 2.57 | 2.66 |
Prices were taken from the Punchestown meeting held on Wednesday 31 October 2007.
Clonmel prices were from the meeting on 1 November 2007. The prices for Down Royal were collected from the meeting there on 02 November 2007. The prices for Leopardstown were collected from the meeting there held on 03 November 2007.
Table One:Over-round per race
| Race | Thurles | Thurles | Gowran Park | Dundalk |
| First | 143 | 149 | 144 | 127 |
| Second | 117 | 143 | 154 | 142 |
| Third | 137 | 152 | 147 | 139 |
| Fourth | 142 | 135 | 135 | 139 |
| Fifth | 149 | 136 | 153 | 123 |
| Sixth | 145 | 139 | 127 | 142 |
| Seven | 130 | 152 | 147 | 153 |
| Average | 137.5 | 143.7 | 143.8 | 137.8 |
Prices were taken from the Thurles meetings held on Wednesday 8 November 2007 and on
22 November 2007. Gowran Park on the 24 November 2007. Dundalk 23 November 2007.
Table Two - Over-round per runner
| Race | Thurles | Thurles | Gowran Park | Dundalk |
| First | 2.68 | 2.30 | 2.05 | 2.88 |
| Second | 2.42 | 2.70 | 2.30 | 3.21 |
| Third | 2.31 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 2.21 |
| Fourth | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.42 | 2.38 |
| Fifth | 2.72 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.28 |
| Sixth | 2.64 | 2.58 | 2.75 | 2.18 |
| Seven | 2.30 | 2.83 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| Average | 2.24 | 2.68 | 2.57 | 2.66 |
Prices were taken from the Thurles meetings held on Wednesday 8 November 2007 and on
22 November 2007. Gowran Park on the 24 November 2007. Dundalk 23 November 2007.
There is of course an alternative for Irish punters, and that is to bet on the betting exchanges. In the following table, we see a comparison between the Betfair Starting Price and the traditional indutry Starting Price, as returned on the Walsh's Toyota Beginners Chase 2m2f run at Gowran Park, Ireland, on Saturday 16 February 2008. The over-round on Betfair was 100 (excluding commission) compared with an indutry over-round of 143%.
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