Statistical guide to finding the winner of the 2017 Irish Grand National.
What the statistics reveal, is that eight of the last sixteen winners were returned at odds of 20/1 or greater, with only one horse during this period returned at single figure odds. The majority of winners during this period have been 7 or 8 year olds.
There have only been two six year old winners in the last forty three runnings of the race, with the last eleven year old to be victorious being Mudahim in 1997.
This is a bad race for favourites and a poor race as regard following the money. Many many big gambles have gone awry. It is a
feature of the race, that it typically contains at least half a dozen runners owned by J.P.McManus, all of whom are shortened up
by the bookmakers to give the impresson that they are being backed.
This is not a great race for weight carriers; in the past sixteen years only three horses have carried more than 10-06 to victory, and on each occasion there was good in the going. As is the case at Aintree, horse carrying big weights get sunk in the mud.
Every winner over the past sixteen years, except Organisedconfusion and Granit d'Estruval had won a race valued at more than 10K prior to landing the big one, and every winner, except Hear the Echo and Organisedconfusion had previously won over 3m under rules. Fifteen of the last sixteen winners of the race had run at least three times during the season, prior to taking the race, with thirteen of the last sixteen winners having run between four and eight times. Ten of the last sixteen winners had finished fourth or better in their last outing. Seven had won over the course previoulsy and five had run at that year's Cheltenham Festival.