gium Bettingmarket: Betting Industry Journal.


You can price risk, but not uncertainty.

Magical Thinking

Cognitive biases (systematic errors in the way that humans process information) undermine most betting decisions. On the one hand, you have the bettors who decide to ignore the betting market completely: never stopping to consider that the trades of others may be signalling that they are actually at an informational disadvantage. These types of bettors find contrary views or inconvenient facts discomfiting, and will, more often than not, come up with reasons to discredit them. They know better.

By way of contrast there are those that obsess about the betting market - believing it to be some sort of oracle. These types of bettors are guilty of weighing the information of others too heavily, whilst giving too little weight to sentiment, momentum, spoofing, herding, information cascades and late breaking public information.

All thinking on betting market prices is subjective and prone to overinterpretation. All betting market prices are overdetermined and subject to contingent events. The price is a snapshot of an an agreed valuation of a horse's chances at a specific moment in time: it is there for traders' to react to.

The 2.20 at Yarmouth today saw the debut of the highly touted Magic J a son of Scat Daddy colt who cost $950,000 as a yearling. He was taken on in early trading - out to 3.3 (matched 2.76), but was the subject of further strong support in the last couple of minutes before the off.

what you see depends on where you are standing

what you see depends on where you are standing

what you see depends on where you are standing

Blinkers Off

Augur Update

Augur the decentralized prediction/betting market protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain stumbles along, attracting very little liquidity to anything other than crypto related markets (Only $1,244.55 traded to date on the who will win the 2018/19 English Premier League betting market, for example). One of the main markets on the platform, by volume, concerns Augur traders betting that the Augur Rep cryptocurrency will appreciate in value by the end of 2018. To the question Will REP token trade above $32 at the end of 2018? only 32% of those that have traded in the market are saying yes - hardly an overwhelming vote of confidence in the Augur Exchange.

You can track the live betting markets on Augur by clicking on the link below. It is notable that most of the sports betting markets on Augur have attracted no liquidity whatsoever. So, as it stands, Augur is being used as a platform on which to hedge crypto and not much else. To the question, what is the impact that the blockchain will have on the betting market, the answer, based on what we have seen so far, is none. If the fate of a new technology can really be predicted through observing the way that it is adoped by the gambling and porn industries, then the blockchain/crypto axis can be said to be on life support. As of the morning of 18 September 2018 Augur Rep is down another 10% at around $12.20 USD The only reason that the currency has any value at all is because of the significant holding of other cryptocurrencies held by the parent company Augur. In other words, Augur is the proverbial sleight of hand busted flush. I would ask the CEO's of Augur and Gnosis to put their egos aside and to do the good thing and return all monies to early investors whilst there is still some money left in the coffers.

what you see depends on where you are standing

As Crypto Meets Prediction Markets, Regulators Take Notice

Predictions.Global is a website that allows users to view live betting markets on the recently launched blockchain prediction market Augur.

US Betting Market Latest

It is becoming increasingly clear that the newly regulated US betting market will be fiercely competitive. As per usual, early forecasts of a bumper bonanza for UK and Ireland based betting companies have been pared back. This is not surprising when one considers that nobody has, or indeed, can have, any understanding of the structure of the environment that they are going to be trading in. Which states will permit sports betting in a retail environment and which states will permit only online sports betting? Fierce competition equates to increased marketing costs and ultimately to reduced profitability for everyone.

Your state-by-state guide to sports betting in light of Supreme Court ruling.

Legal U.S. Sports Betting Market Could Increase NFL Bettors By 63 Percent.

Concern yourself with things before they come into existence. (Tao Te-Ching).

Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side