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When he published the Dosage Index in 1981, Dr Steve Roman proposed that when analysing the Kentucky Derby, one should use the index in conjunction with the Experimental Free Handicap - the ranking of two year olds compiled by the Jockey Club,based on a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles in the spring for 3-year-olds on dirt.

This process would unearth what Roman labelled "Dual Qualifiers" - horses with a Dosage Index (DI) of 4.00 or less who were ranked within ten pounds of the high-weight on the Handicap;

"The Dual Qualifiers are blessed with staying pedigrees as expressed in their DI, and an advanced degree of class and maturity as reflected by their superior performance at two and acknowledged by their positions on the EFH. (Dual Qualifiers) are bred to stay a mile and a quarter as young three-year-olds; they have matured earlier than average and, third, they are among the elite runners of their generation as two-year-olds, exhibiting exceptional class virtually from the beginning of their racing career."

For the 2007 Experimental Handicap, only those horses who finished at least fourth in a graded or unrestricted stakes worth at least $75,000 in the United States were eligible to be weighted.

Critics of the Dual Qualifying system point out that since the stakes performance restrictions were instituted in the late 1980s the theory has lost some credibility, not least; as nine of the last ten Derby winners were not weighted and thus, not Dual Qualifiers. They surmise that the theory often forces punters to discard lightly raced two year olds, that are open to considerable improvement. Smarty Jones, Winning Colors and Sunday Silence were smart two year olds who were not rated on the European Free Handicap.

There is some merit to their argument, but in broader terms, it is true that dual qualifiers do perform to a consistently high standard in all of the triple crown races;

"Between 1973 and 2006 there have been 93 American classic races in which at least one DQ started. Of these, 53 (57.6%) were won by a DQ despite only 19.4% of the fields being comprised of DQs. The result is an Impact Value (IV) of 2.97 where IV is a measure of success vs opportunity. In this case, only 19.4% of starters possessed the characteristics of a DQ yet they won 57.6% of the races. In a random world, where no trait or set of traits represents an advantage, the IV would be 1.00. Therefore, DQs, by virtue of their distance pedigree and high-class early maturity alone, win almost three times as many classic races as we might expect."

In Chapter 15 of the "Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets", edited by D. B. Hausch and W.T. Ziemba, the authors note;

"For comparison, betting $2,500 on the favorite to win from 1981 to 2005 would yield a loss of $41,500, betting $200 to win on each dual qualifier would yield a profit of $12,920 on $13,200 bet, and a $200 bet to win on each dual-or-asterisk qualifier would yield a profit of $7,780 on $23,000 bet."

Nonetheless, one can conclude that the old ways of handicapping the Kentucky Derby are slowly becoming a thing of the past; these days many horses line up in the race with only two prep races under their belt; a number will come into the race of five-to-eight-week layoffs; and some will even take their place in the race of three lifetime starts. Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999, and Giacomo in 2005 all had Dosage Index values greater than 4.00.

Regardless, the 2007 renewal proved to be the year of the dual qualifiers, with Street Sense coming from almost last to first to record a decisive victory. The Breeders Cup Juvenile hoodoo was also laid to rest once and for all, and the DQ's were back in business.

The 2011 renewal of the Kentucky Derby sees dual qualifier Uncle Mo currently trading in the global betting market at odds of 9/4. The next dual qualifier in the betting lists is Soldat who is currently priced at odds of 20/1. To Honor and Serve is a 25/1 shot, whilst Boys at Tosconova is available at odds of 33/1. It is very difficult to look beyond Uncle Mo at this stage as being the most likely winner of the race.

Kentucky Derby 2011 Dual Qualifiers

Horse	DP	DI	CD	Odds
Uncle Mo	1 - 2 - 5 - 0 - 0	2.20	0.50	9/4
Soldat	7 - 6 - 11 - 2 - 0	2.47	0.69	20/1
To Honour and Serve	4 - 6 - 11 - 1 - 0	2.38	0.59	25/1
Boys At Tosconova	3 - 1 - 4 - 0 - 0	3.00	0.88	33/1
Comma to the Top	3 - 0 - 5 - 0 - 0	2.20	0.75
Pluck	5 - 0 - 11 - 2 - 0	1.40	0.44
JP's Gusto	3 - 1 - 3 - 1 - 0	2.20	0.75
Jaycito	5 - 5 - 10 - 0 - 0	3.00	0.75

Bettingmarket.Com Selection: Uncle Mo

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