With the late defection of the Paul Cole trained River Proud, sixteen horses will go to post for the 2008 renewal of the Epsom Derby.

Doctor Fremantle landed the Chester Vase, a race which in the past had thrown up Epsom Derby greats Shergar and Henbit. He handled the Chester track with consumate ease, and recorded a good Group 1 time in the process; two factors which augur well, as regards his chances at Epsom on the big day. At two he had finished second, beaten two and a half lengths, behind subsequent Oaks winner Looks Here in the Allied Irish Bank Southampton EBF Maiden Stakes at Salisbury. By Sadlers Wells out of a Rainbow Quest mare, he will have no problems seeing out the 12fs of the Derby, and, indeed, one suspects that he will improve again over the trip. Put in a recent good gallop at Stoute's, with Australian ace Kerrin McEvoy up. A well balanced, scopey sort, said by Kieren Fallon to be one of the best movers he has ever ridden (and with a temperament to die for) he is entitled to go close.

Curtain Call is a representative of the Sadlers Wells/Mill Reef bloodline, a cross that has produced Yesterday, High Chaparral, Islington, Edadiyla, Milan, Greek Dance, Quarter Moon, Alberto Giacometti, In the Wings, Subtle Power etc... Boasting dominant classicity, he impressed many observers last year when running his opponents ragged in the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes. He had previously finished a good second to National Stakes hero and 2000 Guineas favourite New Approach in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes. However, he let his supporters down when subsequently running flat in the Racing Post. Now trained by Luca Cumani, he opened his three year old account with an easy victory in a three horse race at Nottingham. Bookmakers responed by shortening him up for the 2008 Derby, despite the fact that his size and running style, suggested to some that he may not be at home over the Epsom undulations. Having missed the Lingfield Derby trial because of firm going, he was displaced as ante-post favourite. The fact that he did not run in a trial leaves his trainer with the difficult task of having to keep him at his peak rather than simply building him back up to his peek after a run. He is also on the small side. Nonetheless, his trainers record, combined with his form and unquestionable stamina, suggest that he is, all being well, going to be in the firing line. (His supporters will be hoping that Spencer does not find traffic problems!).

The Stoute trained Tartan Bearer entered many notebooks when unlucky in a back end Newmarket maiden last November. A full brother to Golan, he landed a moderate Leicester maiden at the end of April, in the process acquiring a rather ambitious quote of 16-1 for the Derby from Totesport. Won the Dante Stakes at York in good style, but the race was run at a slow pace and he showed a little laziness in front. Moreover, in the end analysis, he failed to put much daylight between himself and the O'Brien trained Frozen Fire, a horse who Murtagh described only as being a Derby "possible" after the race (and has since swerved). Many professionals will also remember the fact that his full brother Golan, a brilliant winner of the 2000 Guineas, did not come down the hill at Epsom too well. Lightly raced and remains open to improvement; however, dosage fans may wish to check out his numbers (see below) which look a little light as regards the historical averages. The first choice of Stoute's stable jockey Ryan Moore, and the shortest in the market of the stables three runners. He may surprise many punters by going off favourite on the day.

Casual Conquest, a big, strong, scopey son of Hernando, he first caught the eye when easily landing a Leopardstown maiden on fast ground at two. He could not have been more impressive than when landing the 2008 running of the Derrinstown Stakes at Leopardstown. However, the presence of Kris on the dam side, may raise some stamina concerns. Unlike most of Hernando's progeny he would appear to act on good to firm. It is something of a big ask, to expect him to win the Epsom Derby on the back of only two lifetime starts, and the possibility of him bouncing on the big day, will see many professional layers keen to take him on. There is also the fact that he is a big horse, standing at 16.3 hands, a fact that is likely to lead many professionals to question whether he will handle the Epsom track. He clearly has the form to win, but does he have the proper conformation, experience and the necessary stamina? If he does handle the track expect to see him ridden handily throughout, and to be sent on early in the straight. On the eve of the race he is proving to be relatively friendless on the betting exchanges, and we are now predicting (see below) that he will not go off favourite on the day.

The O'Brien trained Frozen Fire was considered good enough to run in the Racing Post trophy, but he did not set the world alight, finishing a well beaten seventh behind the winner Ibn Khaldoun. Ran a good race in the Dante Stakes at York, where he was just touched off by Tartan Bearer; although he gave the impression that he was coming to the end of his tether. The presence of Woodman on the dam side does not inspire as regards his chances of seeing out the Epsom trip. Another possible O'Brien runner is Alessandro Volta, who is by Montjeu out of the Machiavellian mare Ventura Highway. Has improved steadily in five outings, culminating in victory in the totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield. All out to hold off his stablemate King of Rome, he did not appear to handle the track, hanging right and then left when asked to go about his business. Less than impressive and must improve again to trouble the judge.

The O'Brien trained Washington Irving, something of a talking horse, is a close relation to Alexandrova and Magical Romance. Talked up as being the number one Ballydoyle horse over the winter, he has failed to live upto his loft reputation. Nontheless, it would be no surprise were he to leave his somewhat mediocre form behind him on the big day and to run into a place. The O'Brien trained King of Rome looks totally exposed, but again, it would be no great surprise to see him run into a place.

Dee Stakes winner winner Tajaaweed was landing a trial that had in previous years produced Epsom Derby heroes Oath in 1999 and Kris Kin in 2003. He is a scopey sort, who seemed to win with something in hand; nonetheless, there has to be a question mark as to whether he will handle the Epsom track, and he does not boast an orthodox staying pedigree. Tajaaweed, is by the son of Roberto Dynaformer, who has got staying types, such as Spanish John, who won over 1m 7fs in ireland and Film Maker who won over 12fs in the US. Pedigree purists may raise their eyebrows, however, at the presence of a Zilzal mare on the dam side. Zilzal, won five of his six career starts, including the Swettenham Stud Sussex Stakes (Eng-I) and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Eng-I) and earned $734,836 in the process. His 18 stakes winners included champions Shaanxi (in France) and Kammtarra (in Dubai) as well as 1998 Sussex Stakes winner Among Men, plus Always Loyal, who won the 1997 Dubai Poule d'Essai des Pouliches (Fr-I, the French One Thousand Guineas).

Another who has Epsom on the agenda is the Henry Cecil-trained Kandahar Run who recently excelled in his work under Ted Durcan. Working over 11 furlongs at Newmarket he went well clear of his lead horse in a manner which suggests that he will see out the Epsom trip, regardless of the fact that being by Rock of Gibraltar out of the Kenamre mare Kenmist he is closely related to the French 1000 Guineas winner Grey Lilas. Would have to improve markedly to figure in the shake up. Cecil's legion of fans are likely to ensure that he will go off shorter than his current quote of 25/1 - one for the Betfair traders!

The Godolphin trained Rio De La Plata, by Rahy, is closely related to El Expresivo a top-class 7f winner at 3. Recently ran a decent second in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains behind Falco, having previously finished fourth in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes behind New Approach. Looks exposed and has regressed in terms of form this year. Will be the choice of the Argentinians who back on the basis of name.

Jim Bolger has surprised many with his announcement that New Approach may now take his chance in the 2008 Derby; "We are leaving New Approach in the Derby at this stage. If the ground is good or on the soft side of good, he will run in the race." By the Ahonoora mare Park Express, he is closely related to a number of 8f and 10f winners. New Approach is the highest rated horse in the race; albeit that his figure was obtained over 1m. Whether he is a natural Epsom Derby horse is open to question. Given his trainer's shenanigan's concerning intentions not to run at Epsom, he will probably go down in history as the most unpopular winner ever of the Epsom Derby, were he to be victorious on Saturday. You have to go back to Grundy and The Minstrel to find Derby winners who had contested both the Irish and English Guineas. Moreover, it is almost unheard of for a Derby winner not to have been prepped over a mile and a quarter. Nonetheless, he looks like he is going to get his ground and he could well go off favourite on the day, on the back of his tall reputation. In that the horse is known to have temperament issues, anybody wishing to back him, would do well to hold fire until he has made it down to the start.

The four remaining runners are Bouguereau, Bashkirov, Maidstone Mixture, Alan Devonshire. They are currently quoted on Betfair at odds of 380 and upwards.

Our Selection 1 - Doctor Fremantle. 2 - Curtain Call 3 - Tartan Bearer 4- Casual Conquest 5 - Washington Irving 6 - New Approach

Researched and written by Niall O'Connor

Horse	Sire	Dam	Dam Sire
New Approach	Galileo(IRE) (11.0f)	Park Express	(Ahonoora(8.0f))
Frozen Fire	Montjeu(IRE) (11.6f)	Flamingo Sea(USA)	(Woodman (USA)(9.9f))
Curtain Call	Sadler's Wells(USA) (11.3f)	Apsara(FR)	(Darshaan(11.7f))
Tartan Bearer	Spectrum(IRE) (9.6f)	Highland Gift(IRE)	(Generous (IRE)(11.8f))
Tajaaweed	Dynaformer(USA) (11.1f)	Uforia(USA)	(Zilzal (USA)(8.4f))
Doctor Fremantle	Sadler's Wells(USA) (11.3f)	Summer Breeze	(Rainbow Quest (USA)(11.1f)
Casual Conquest	Hernando(FR) (12.5f)	Lady Luck(IRE)	(Kris(9.9f))
Kandahar Run	Rock Of Gibraltar(IRE) (9.5f)	Kenmist	(Kenmare (FR )(9.8f))
King of Rome	Montjeu(IRE) (11.5f)	Amizette(USA)	(Forty Niner (USA)(8.1f))
Washington Irving	Montjeu(IRE) (11.5f)	Shouk	(Shirley Heights(12.3f))
Rio de la Plata	Rahy(USA) (9.5f)	Express Way(ARG)	(Ahmad (ARG))

2008 Epsom Derby - Dosage Index of the leading contenders

Predicted SP	Horse	Dosage Profile	Dosage Points	Dosage Index	COD
5.5	Tartan Bearer	2-1-8-3-2	16	0.78	- 0.13
6.4	Curtain Call	6-1-24-9-2	42	0.83	0.00
6.4	Curtain Call	6-1-24-9-2	42	0.83	0.00
7.0	Casual Conquest	4-0-13-3-6	26	0.68	- 0.27
6.6	New Approach	5-0-7-6-0	18	0.89	0.22
9.0	Doctor Fremantle	7-1-27-9-0	44	0.96	0.14
14.0	Kandahar Run	2-2-7-1-0	12	1.67	0.42
16.5	Tajaaweed	7-3-25-0-3	38	1.45	0.29
20.0	Frozen Fire	8-0-16-4-0	28	1.33	0.43
22.0	King of Rome	10-2-13-4-1	30	1.61	0.53
33.0	Rio de la Plata	8-1-10-1-2	22	1.75	0.55
40.0	Washington Irving	3-1-14-6-4	28	0.65	-0.25
80.0	Alessandro Volta	7-0-14-5-2	28	1.00	0.18
	Average 1940 - 2007	8-4-12-5-6	35	1.38	0.04

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Sunday, 29 May 2008 at 10:02 AM