Betting Market

O'Brien's Seville by Galileo out of a Silver Hawk mare was second to Godolphin's Casamento in the Racing Post Trophy. He was not disgraced when running second to Carlton House in the Dante, and he remains open to significant improvement, not least given that paddock watchers reported that he was dull in his coat, and that he did not look hard fit for this reappearance (indeed, he ran a little green). Considering the improvement shown by his stablemates Roderic O'Connor and Misty for Me, on the back of a first seasonal run, it is very possible that he can reverse Dante form with Carlton House, especially if O'Brien employs different running tactics at Epsom, such that he is able to come off a fast early pace. The fact that the very talented judge of a race, Christophe Soumillon, retains the ride, is a signifciant plus in the horses favour. An intriguing fact regarding Seville, is that prior to his defeat in the Dante, bookmakers Paddy Power and the Tote were very keen to lay him (Power were laying him at 100/30 whilst others had him as their market leader at low as 2/1). It is open to conjecture whether this action reflected the fact that it had leaked out that he would need the run, or whether they simply knew that Carlton House was a good thing. Regardless, the current price of 7/1 represents significant e/w value, against Carlton Houses's current quote of 6/4.

O'Brien's Navan maiden winner Recital also looks an iteresting type with regard to Epsom, winning as he pleased, when staying on well inside final furlong. His unraced dam Dibenoise, counts amongst her progeny Corre Caminos and Racinger, neither of whom raced over twelve furlongs, although the former twice raced and won over 11fs, including victory in the 2006 Prix Ganay. He was an easy winner of the Criterium De Saint-Cloud (Group 1) on heavy, a race that has mixed fortunes as regards the Epsom Derby. He won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial in good style, despite displaying obvious signs of greeness, a high head carriage and a tendancy to hang to the left. History suggests that he will improve again, and if O'Brien is able to iron out his quirks, he will be there or thereabouts on the day.

Stoute is a master when it comes to training Epsom Derby winners and this year his best chance would seem to rest with Carlton House, who is by the brilliant Street Cry, out of a Bustino Mare. In the space of four days in 2009, Street Cry's offspring won the Melbourne Cup with Shocking, and the Breeders Cup Classic with Zenyatta. A more than impressive winner of a Newbury back end maiden, he won the Dante Stakes in good style and he is now as short as 6/4 for the Epsom Derby. Whilst he is open to significant improvement, paddock watchers reported that he looked fit enough for the Dante, and there are many who doubt his ability to act on the course. He was also recalcitrant prior to entering the stalls at York, and it is to be hoped the preliminaries on the big day do not get to him. Rumours of an injury scare also abound at the time of writing. Accordingly, he does not represent value at the current prices on offer in the betting market.

Regarding the 2011 Dante leading pundit Nick Mordin has written;

"When I analysed the form before the Dante I found it hard not to conclude that it was a weak renewal of what should be the premier Derby Trial. None of the runners had earned a decent Group class speed rating from me. Two of the six runners were coming into the race off maiden wins. Another two had shown rather ordinary form in minor handicaps.

Sure enough the time of the race was desperately slow. The winner clocked a time 3.4 seconds slower than the fillies went in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes over the same trip in the previous race.

The most remarkable thing about the Dante was that the early pace was slow but the colts failed to make up the lost time in the sprint for home. They reached the five furlong from home mark 3.2 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes yet still came home from there a fifth of a second slower.

It was only in the last three furlongs that they went a little quicker in the Dante than the Middleton Stakes, and then only by 0.9 of a second - despite the fact the runners were flat to the boards all the way through the final three furlongs.

For comparison there have been three recent renewals of the Dante which were run in slower time than the Middleton Stakes.

In 2008 the colts reached the five furlong from home mark in the Dante 2.6 seconds later than the fillies did in the Middleton Stakes. They then ran the last five furlongs 1.3 seconds faster and the last three furlongs 1.3 seconds faster as well.

Last year they reached the five furlong from home mark in the Dante 1.9 seconds later than they did in the Middleton Stakes. They got home from the five furlong mark 1.4 seconds quicker and from the three furlong mark 1.2 seconds quicker.

What these sectional times tell me is that CARLTON HOUSE (34) doesn't merit a pattern class speed rating from me for his Dante win, not even when I adjust his rating to take account of the sprint finish. He won a weak race in slow time, making up remarkably little ground on the fillies' time in the final three furlongs considering how slow he'd gone earlier.

The presence of one of the handicappers in a close up third placing endorses the idea that this year's Dante was the worst in years.

How on earth Carlton House was promoted to favouritism for the Derby on the basis of this performance at odds as short as 6-4 is beyond me. Nine of the 53 Dante winners to date have gone on to win the Derby, So statistically even an average Dante winner should be 5-1 for the Derby. But I rate Carlton House significantly slower than the average Dante winner.

Another thing that concerns me about Carlton House is that his front end seems slightly lower than his back end when running, giving him a rather unbalanced look. This being so I have my doubts about him handling the severe gradients and tight turns at Epsom. His two wins to date have come on dead flat galloping courses.

Carlton House did pick up quite well in the sprint finish to get by SEVILLE (33). But my feeling is that Seville will turn out to be the better of the pair."

The £70,000 yearling (Malcolm Bastard) and 180,000 gns Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up graduate Native Khan, seemingly ran a good Derby trial in the 2000 Guineas. He will be ridden on the day by the intelligent Derby winning jockey Peslier, and he is many peoples idea of an each-way play against the more fancied runners from the bigger stables. He looks like he may not be a natural Derby horse, in terms of pedigree, but this is what the purists also said about the stables Ouija Board, prior to her landing the 2004 Oaks.

Fabre's Pour Moi boasts a classic Epsom Derby pedigree (Montjeu out of a Darshann mare) and won the Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud in a fast time, running green, and sweeping down the outside of the field, to come from last position and win with plenty in hand. He will be ridden on the day by the rising star of the global horse racing scene, Mickaël Barzalona. The Derby has alluded Fabre, one of the world's greatest trainers, and it is interesting, that he openly states that this horse represents his best chance of winning the race.