The 161st Grand National will be run at Aintree racecourse on Saturday April 5 2008. For the fourth time John Smith's, the brewing company, will sponsor the whole three day Festival, with £700,000 prize money for the big race alone. This excellent and generous sponsorship will keep the famous race in the forefront of the world's premier sporting events.

On safety grounds, only forty horses will be allowed to compete in the race proper. And so, at the final declaration stage, if more than forty have stood their ground, a balloting out procedure will take place from the top weight down, resulting in all horses above forty missing the race. Bookmakers it should be noted must return bets placed on horses balloted out in this procedure.

Obviously the going on the day will be a major determining factor as regards the winner of the race, and indeed, the final field, as several of this year's more fancied runners operate best on extremes of going and will not take their chance should the going significantly turn against them.

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and the race is often described as being such. As the following statistics reveal, however, this is far from being the case.

Age of winners	8	9	10	11	12
1952-1971	6	7	3	1	3
1972-1991	2	6	3	5	4
1992-2007	2	5	5	1	2
Total	10	18	11	7	9

Odds of winners	below 20/1	average odds	range of odds	Favourites
1952-1971	15	17/1	7-40/1	2
1972-1991	15	16.8/1	7-50/1	2
1992-2007	10	23.3/1	13/2-100/1	2 (1 joint).
Total	40= 72.7%	19.6/1	13.2/100/1	6 ( 1 joint)!

Weight	10.00	10.1-10.7	10.7-10.13	11.0-11.6	11.7-11.13	12.00 top weight.
1952-1971	4	5	4	5	2	0
1972-1991	1	7	6	4	1 (red rum)	1 (red rum)
1992-2007	2	7	5	1	0	0
Total	7	19	15	10	3	1

What the statistics reveal, is that the majority of winners are returned at odds of less than 20/1, but are not favourite; they are most likely to be 8, 9 or 10 year olds, weighted somewhere between 10.00--10.13. The winner is most unlikely to come from those horses obliged to carry 11.7 or over.

When we throw into the mix other factors such as has the horse won a chase over at least 3 miles; has it run 4-6 times during the season and won at least once and, had a run within last 50 days, our quest for the winner of the race is narrowed down considerably.

The winner of the 2007 renewal of the Aintree Grand National was the Irish trained Silver Birch - aged 10 and carrying 10.06! He was returned at odds of 33/1. McKelvey was second, aged 8 and carrying 10.4, returned at 12/1, whilst Slim Pickings, aged 8 and carrying 10.8 was third; returned at 33/1.

Eight of the first nine home in the race in 2006, had less than 11st on their backs, and in 2007 the same pattern emerged, with out of the first 8 home all bar one were carrying between 10.4 to 10 .8, whilst of the 13 finishers only 3 were weighted over 11.00.

Once again the trends spoke, and once again the mug punters lost their money on the so called class horses, who had been burdened with more than 11 st! However, it should be noted that this year the bottom weight in the race may carry 10.8 compared with a bottom weight of just 10.2 last year. This would mean that the top weight will be giving away just 18lbs, compared with a norm, until recently, of 28lbs. Such a compression of the weights is likely to improve the chances of those horses that are being asked to carry a weight of 11.0 or above; and, Chesea Harbour, for example, at 11.2, looks interesting. Nonetheless, for our own selections, we row in with four horses weighted below 11.0.

1 - Cloudy Lane - An eight year old, he looks thrown in of 10.11. Warm Fav.

2 - DArgent - At eleven, outside the preferred age range, but well weighted at 10.12.

3 - Comply or Die - Aged 9 carrying 10.9. Looks laid out for the race.

4 - Black Apalchi - Aged 9 carrying 10.8. Irish dark horse currently 140 on Betfair.

3 - Comply or Die - Aged 9 carrying 10.9.