The 2009 John Smith's Grand National, run over four and a half miles and 30 famous fences, takes place at 4.15pm on Saturday, April 10 2010. Aintree Racecourse has announced that the 2009 renewal of the world?s greatest steeplechase, the John Smith?s Grand National, will be worth a record £925000, an increase of £25,000 on the 2009 value. This is the thirs consecutive year that the value of the John Smith's Grand National has increased; however, it is something of a marketing blunder that Smith's could not have reached into their pocket to give us the first ever 1m National. That is somthing that horse racing badly needs at this time.

On safety grounds, only forty horses will be allowed to compete in the race proper. And so, at the final declaration stage, if more than forty have stood their ground, a balloting out procedure will take place from the top weight down, resulting in all horses above forty missing the race. Bookmakers it should be noted must return bets placed on horses balloted out in this procedure.

Obviously the going on the day will be a major determining factor as regards the winner of the race, and indeed, the final field, as several of this year's more fancied runners operate best on extremes of going and will not take their chance should the going significantly turn against them.

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and the race is often described as being such. As the following statistics reveal, however, this is far from being the case.

Age of winners	8	9	10	11	12
1952-1971	6	7	3	1	3
1972-1991	2	6	3	5	4
1992-2008	2	6	5	1	2
Total	10	19	11	7	9

Odds of winners	below 20/1	average odds	range of odds	Favourites
1952-1971	15	17/1	7-40/1	2
1972-1991	15	16.8/1	7-50/1	2
1992-2008	11	23.3/1	13/2-100/1	2 (1 joint).
Total	40= 72.7%	19.6/1	13.2/100/1	6 ( 1 joint)!

Weight	10.00	10.1-10.7	10.7-10.13	11.0-11.6	11.7-11.13	12.00 top weight.
1952-1971	4	5	4	5	2	0
1972-1991	1	7	6	4	1 (red rum)	1 (red rum)
1992-2008	2	7	6	1	0	0
Total	7	19	15	10	3	1

What the statistics reveal, is that the majority of winners are returned at odds of less than 20/1, but are not favourite; they are most likely to be 8, 9 or 10 year olds, weighted somewhere between 10.00--10.13. The winner is most unlikely to come from those horses obliged to carry 11.1 or over. The Aintree specialist Hedgehunter, who carried 11st 1lb to victory, is in fact the only horse in the past twenty five years to have carried more than 11st to victory. The 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome carried 11st to victory, but it should be noted that the bottom weight in the race was racing off 10st 05lb; thus ensuring a greater compression amongst the weights, than usual.

When we throw into the mix other factors such as has the horse won a chase over at least 3 miles; has it run 4-6 times during the season and won at least once and, had a run within last 50 days, our quest for the winner of the race is narrowed down considerably.

The winner of the 2007 renewal of the Aintree Grand National was the Irish trained Silver Birch - aged 10 and carrying 10.06! He was returned at odds of 33/1. McKelvey was second, aged 8 and carrying 10.4, returned at 12/1, whilst Slim Pickings, aged 8 and carrying 10.8 was third; returned at 33/1.

Eight of the first nine home in the race in 2006, had less than 11st on their backs, and in 2007 the same pattern emerged, with out of the first 8 home all bar one were carrying between 10.4 to 10 .8, whilst of the 13 finishers only 3 were weighted over 11.00.

The 2008 renewal was won by the David Pipe trained Comply or Die, who was aged 9 and carrying 10.9. He was returned at 7/1.

Once again the trends spoke, and once again the mug punters lost their money on the so called class horses, who had been burdened with more than 11 st on the day!

The 2010 system horse is the Willie Mullins trained Snowy Morning, who has run six times this season, winning once; has won over 3ms+ and is aged 10, is currently set to carry 10-13 and has run within the last fifty days. He is generally available in the 2010 Grand National betting market at around 20/1 (advised 33/1). Also in his favour is the fact that he has completed the course on two previous occasions, finishing a best placed third. Horses outside the system, but on whom we have nicked the value are Ballyholland, State of Play and Vic Venturi.

Supporters of the well fancied seven year old The Package, would do well to note that since 1992, only four of the 34 six and seven-year-olds that have taken their chance in the race have managed to finish the course. Experience counts and weight kills, would appear to be the order of the day when it comes to the Grand National.

Niall O'Connor

1 - Snowy Morning - 33/1

2 - Ballyholland - 40/1

3 - State of Play - 33/1

4 - Vic Venturi - 25/1

5 - Whinstone Boy - 40/1

Niall O'Connor