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The 2011 John Smith's Grand National, run over four and a half miles and 30 famous fences, takes place at 4.15pm on Saturday, April 09 2011. Aintree Racecourse has announced that the 2011 renewal of the worlds greatest steeplechase will have total prize-money of £950000, an increase of £25000 on this year's race. This is the fifth consecutive year that the value of the John Smith's Grand National has increased; however, it is something of a marketing blunder that Smith's could not have reached into their pocket to give us the first ever 1m National. That is somthing that horse racing badly needs at this time, as its star is cleary in the wane.

On safety grounds, only forty horses will be allowed to compete in the race proper. And so, at the final declaration stage, if more than forty have stood their ground, a balloting out procedure will take place from the top weight down, resulting in all horses above forty missing the race. Bookmakers it should be noted must return bets placed on horses balloted out in this procedure.

Obviously the going on the day will be a major determining factor as regards the winner of the race, and indeed, the final field, as several of this year's more fancied runners operate best on extremes of going and will not take their chance should the going significantly turn against them.

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and the race is often described as being such. As the following statistics reveal, however, this is far from being the case. Between 1952 and 2010, for example, 76% of the winners of the race were returned at odds of less than 20/1.

What the statistics reveal, is that the majority of winners are returned at odds of less than 20/1, but are not favourite; they are most likely to be 8, 9 or 10 year olds, weighted somewhere between 10.00--10.13. The winner is most unlikely to come from those horses obliged to carry 11.1 or over. The Aintree specialist Hedgehunter, who carried 11st 1lb to victory, and the 2010 winner Don't Push It are in fact the only horses in the past twenty five years to have carried more than 11st to victory. The 2009 Grand National winner Mon Mome carried 11st to victory, but it should be noted that the bottom weight in the race was racing off 10st 05lb; thus ensuring a greater compression amongst the weights, than usual.

Age matters. The last seven year old to win the National was Bogskar in 1940, whilst the last six year old winner of the big race was Ally Stoper in 1915. The last novice to win the race was "Mr What" who won the 1958 Grand National for owner Mr. D J Coughan, jockey Arthur Freeman and Irish trainer and former Grand National jockey Tom Taaffe.

When we throw into the mix other factors such as has the horse won a chase over at least 3 miles; has it run 4-6 times during the season and won at least once and, had a run within last 50 days, our quest for the winner of the race is narrowed down considerably.

The winner of the 2007 renewal of the Aintree Grand National was the Irish trained Silver Birch - aged 10 and carrying 10.06! He was returned at odds of 33/1. McKelvey was second, aged 8 and carrying 10.4, returned at 12/1, whilst Slim Pickings, aged 8 and carrying 10.8 was third; returned at 33/1.

Eight of the first nine home in the race in 2006, had less than 11st on their backs, and in 2007 the same pattern emerged, with out of the first 8 home all bar one were carrying between 10.4 to 10 .8, whilst of the 13 finishers only 3 were weighted over 11.00.

The 2008 renewal was won by the David Pipe trained Comply or Die, who was aged 9 and carrying 10.9. He was returned at 7/1.

The 2011 system horse is the Gordon Elliot trained Backstage,a French bred, who was travelling well in last year's race when hampered, unseating his rider. Backstage, who previously won the £20,000 Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase, and the £50,000 freebets.co.uk Handicap Chase at Ffos Las has had five runs this year, a "not knocked about" (Timeform) fifth to Killenaule Boy at Down Royal on his seasonal bow, whilst also knocking up two point-to-point victories, including, most recently, an eye-catching, facile, victory at "The Pigeons". The versatile nine year old, has won over 3m1½f, acts on any going, qualifies under the 50 day rule and will race off a handy 10-12 on the day. Whilst it is the case that he will have to register a career best if he is to win the race, he has the conditions in his favour, to do just that.

Niche Market, who is currently trading on Betfair at around 25/1 and in the village with the traditional bookmakers at a best-priced 20/1. The subject of a wind operation, he ran an eye catching race in the Hennessy (enough to suggest that the class is still there), before never being put into the action on his most recent outing. The fact that he will not be ridden by Ruby Walsh will guarantee his supporters a good price on the day.

The At The Races Bobbyjo Chase (Grade 2)run at Fairyhouse on the 23rd of February was a fascinating renewal of the race, with stablemates, and National contenders The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme fighting out the finish. Finishing in third place, and catching the eye, was last years Irish Grand National second Oscar Time, a horse who is well weighted in the National off 10-9. On the downside he has only recorded victory in a Grade B extended handicap, and he may be seen to best effect with some cut in the ground. Arbor Supreme is prone to errors, and has not completed in three of his last six starts, whilst it is very possible that the short priced fav The Midnight Club may also be prone to the occasional error. Regardless, the latter, who is currently National favourite, is bad value at 8/1.

What a Friend, a previous winner of the Grade 1 Lexus Chase, is simply thrown in at the weights, following his eye catching fourth behind Long Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. His love of the Aintree fences was demonstrated when he won the Totesport Bowl Chase Grade 1 in 2010. Likely to challenge for favouritism on the day, if lining up, he has had three runs this year, and despite being good at the weights he will carry what is, for an eight year old, a welter burden of 11-6. He could turn out to be one of the Aintree greats, but the concern remains that he has run his big race of the season in the Gold Cup, and his participation in the National may be simply an aterthought, with connections lured into playing by his good weight.

Chief Dan George is a spring horse, who remains lightly raced at 11. He has been laid out for the race, and will have his supporters at his current odds of 40/1. There is no shrewder trainer alive than Ferdy Murphy, and the fact that Big Fella Thanks has been allotted 11-1 should not turn punters away from what is his very obvious chance. The former SkyBet chase winner was sixth in the 2009 renewal of the race, when aged only seven (carrying 11-1) and fourth in the 2010 renewal when carrying 10-12. He has been taken along slowly all year by Murphy and looks nailed on to hit the frame again.

The eleven year old State of Play is something of an Aintree specialist; having won the Betfair Chase aged six, and then finishing fourth to Mon Mome in the 2009 National, aged 9 and carrying 11-2, and third to Don't Push It in the 2010 renewal, aged 10 and carrying 10-11. He comes into the 2011 renewal a fresh horse (having his first run of the season), aged 11 and carrying a handy 10-6. He is once again also likely to give his supporters a good run for their money, but as with previous years is likely to find one of two too good for him. Accordingly, for the first time in three years he is swerved.

Silver By Nature is a horse that likes some cut in the ground. He hacked up in the Grand National trial at Haydock on heavy ground slamming Ballyfitz by 15ls. The progressive 9 year old gets into the National carrying 10-12 and will have his supporters at the 16/1 mark. Nonetheless they will be praying for some rain come the big day. Were the going to change dramatically to the soft side, one can expect his odds to tumble. On the other hand, were the ground to dry out, expect him to drift like the proverbial.

Contrary to popular opinion, French breds do not have a "bad" record in the Grand National. Just ask those that backed the recent 100/1 winner Mon Mome. The progressive eight year old Quinz, trained by the very talented Philip Hobbs, is a fascinating prospect. Quinz won a maiden at Exeter in October and handicaps at Ascot and Kempton in February; in the latter race, beating Mount Oscar by 1¼ lengths. The fact that he escapes a penalty for his latter success, his prominent running style, and his bold jumping, will stand him in good stead.

Character Building is likely to be the housewives' choice and will according trade lower than his current odds in the betting market. He has the ability to give his supporters a good run for their money. No analysis of the National would be complete without a more detailed look at the McCain trained Ballabriggs, who was run over hurdles earlier in the season ahead of the publication of the National weights. He looks the type that will take to the National fences; albeit, he may prefer a decent bit of cut in the ground, and the suspicion remains in some quarters that he may be prone to the occasional mistake.

It is very possible that the bookmakers will conspire to make last year's winner Don't Push It favourite for this year's renewal. O'Neill's charge is giving away 27lbs to the bottom weight in the race, and it is more than likely that every professional layer in the country will go on to Betfair to take him on. Irish Grand National winner Oscar Time will not have a better chance to win the race, and is another who could yet start favourite on the day. Skippers Brig conforms to many of the stats and is simply over-priced at the currently available 50/1. Betfair traders may wish to avail themselves of some of the 300 or 400 Piraya on the betting exchanges; he should trade shorter. If money does indeed talk, then Becauseicouldntsee is set to run a big race.

Rory O'Connor

6 - Skippers Brig (50 Betfair)

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