In betting on the Labour Leadership election, the implied probability that Corbyn will win is currently 80%. This comes on the back of the latest YouGov poll which suggested that in a two-way contest Corbyn would beat Angela Eagle by 24 points and Owen Smith by 22 points.
There was also a sharp increase recorded in the proportion of Labour Party members saying that they would definitely vote for Corbyn in a leadership contest (from 36% three weeks ago to 44%), saying they would definitely or probably vote for him (from 50% to 57%) and saying he should lead the party into the next election (from 41% to 47%).
It woud seem that the lesson of the Brexit vote has not been learnt as regards the contempt in which the public now holds elites. The likes of Hilary Benn and Stephen Kinnock do not of course see themselves as being elites, and that in itself remains a significant part of
the problems currently being faced by the Labour Party. The Guardian newspaper, another bastion of elites, has spent the past year
putting Coryn down, and all to no avail. Corbyn appeals to the "inexistent" and "excluded part" of society; his increased level of support
represents an ontological disruption, against which his fellow MPs and the elites that support them have no answers: they are
caught in what the French philosopher Badiou calls a crisis of calculation.
Labour Leadership Election Betting Market
Source: Bettingmarket.Com analysis. 21/07/2016.