Lichtman calls 2016 race for Trump.
The American University Professor, Allan Lichtman, who studied every election cycle from 1860 through 1980 to develop a model that has accurately predicted every U.S. presidential election since 1984, has called the 2016 race for Trump. On the back of this a new national ABC/Post poll of likely voters has Clinton on 46 Trump on 44 Johnson on 5 and Stein on 1. It is clear that the contest is much closer than the betting market is currently suggesting and it will no be surprise whatsoever were Trump to pull ahead, were he to
win the debate. Debates can affect polls…and election expectations. As I have pointed out elsewhere the betting market on Betfair remains controlled by a few high net worth individuals and is simply not repsonsive to the latest polls (as per Brexit etc...).
U.S. Presidential Election Betting Market: Polls
U.S. Presidential Election Betting Market: Betfair