The return of Betex
Beleagured Asia betting market facing Betex, forced to delist from London's Aim market, following the arrest of a number of the company's employees in China, has issued an April newsletter. The company said that whilst its core market remained the lottery sector, it intended to re-position the Betex Group brand and to diversify into parallel markets in China. The company said that there were several reasons for doing this: "the arrests and subsequent corporate damage highlighted the dangers of operating in a single niche area. A broader product portfolio would give the Company greater security in the future. The lottery sector in China remains a highly attractive one and one we remain focused on and committed to, but deregulation and change is taking longer than anticipated. By working in other areas we can build new relationships in China whilst consolidating existing ones. Again, this strengthens our position overall." The company said that subject to all the above, it is hoping to obtain a new listing on the London based PLUS market as soon as possible. The timetable for this is contingent on a number of factors, including it signing off its 2007 Accounts, satisfying the requirements of a Working Capital Report, and restructuring the Group and finalising current negotiations in China. Good news indeed, for the trader at CSFB who saw fit to sink 7 million into the company. Not os good, the news that the company's shares are likely to relist at around the 5p mark.

M-Betting comes of age
Probability plc, the AIM quoted m-betting specialist, has announced its un-audited key performance indicators (‘KPIs’) for the fourth quarter of its financial year, from 1st January to 31st March 2008. The company reported that net gaming revenues were up 25% to £1,160,282 (Q3: £930,198). It said that 62,930 new customers had registered to its service during the quarter, raising the total to 339,205, with an average of one new customer registering each minute. The company said that it has raised £1.7m additional capital, net of expenses, through a placing of 3,397,028 Ordinary shares to IPGL Limited, a private holding company in which Michael Spencer, CEO of ICAP plc, together with his wife and family trusts, are majority shareholders. Probability said that it has a net cash position of approx. £2.8m at the end of the quarter. Operational highlights included; a single player taking a profit of £211,000 on mobile Blackjack; the extension of its relationship with Rank Group plc to provide “Mecca” mobile bingo and the extension of relationship with News International to provide “News Of The World” mobile casino, bingo and slots following the successful launch of the same services with “The Sun” in November 2007. The company said that trading in the three weeks since the end of the quarter had been very strong. It said that increased activity means that it is now taking an average of 1.5 bets per second, reaching 10 bets per second during peak times, with a winner every two seconds across a typical 24 hour period. Commenting on these figures, Probability CEO Charles Cohen said; "We are pleased to have delivered consistent progress, quarter on quarter, during 2007 and to be starting the new financial year in a strong position....The exceptional winning streak for a single customer, which netted him over £210,000 at Blackjack, should leave no doubt that serious gamblers can be attracted to the mobile phone platform. Winners are the best advertisement for a gambling business, and we are thrilled that the largest payout for a mobile casino game to date was one of our customers - something which we are using to good effect in our marketing." .

ASA acts against gamblings ads
The Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) has flexed its muscle, over a number of gambling advertisements that it believed had breached the the CAP (Broadcast) TV Advertising Standards Code. An ad for Paddy Power, in the Times, showed a short man in the back of a stretch limousine; he was holding a glass of champagne and a cigar and was flanked by two glamorous-looking women. Text stated "WHO SAYS YOU CAN'T MAKE MONEY BEING SHORT? Financial Spread Betting lets you bet on falling (going short) as well as rising share prices (going long), allowing you to make the most out of volatile markets". The ASA concluded that the ad suggested the man's "shortcoming" would be overcome by the wealth he had acquired through gambling and therefore that the ad implied gambling was a way to improve self-esteem or gain recognition or admiration. It concluded the ad was irresponsible and that it breached CAP Code clauses 2.2 (Social responsibility) and 57.4 (f) (Gambling and personal success). The ASA told Paddy Power not to repeat the approach. Intercasino had run a series of television adverts based around Japanese cartoon characters. The ASA considered that the way that people of restricted growth had been used in the ads was likely to increase the ads appeal to children and young persons. It concluded that three of the advertisements depicted juvenile behaviour, which breached the CAP (Broadcast) TV Advertising Standards Code rule 11.10.2 (c). It concluded that all four ads should not be shown again.

Asia Focus
AsianLogic Limited, the diversified Asia-Pacific online and land-based gaming company, announces that on 16 April 2008 it purchased in the market 1.35 million of its own ordinary shares to be held in treasury. The shares were purchased at a price of 76.5p. AsianLogic recently announced results for the year ended 31 December 2007; revenues for the year were up 95% to US$54.3m (2006:US$27.8); with average daily casino turnover up 67% to US$6.2m (2006:US$ 3.7m)and average daily poker rake and tournament fees up 14 fold in 2007. Profit before tax and adjustment for share based awards was up 210% to US$12.4m (2006:$4.0m ). The company said that average net gaming per day hadf increased from US$92,243 in January to US$145,249 in December, a rise of 57%.

Prediction markets for simpletons
In his New York Times article "Scoring the Pennsylvania Primary" Prediction market luminary Justin Wolfers makes, what are by his own admission "some simple observations." Wolfers notes that Clinton’s 9.5 point victory margin was roughly what one might have expected from a candidate who had been rated as having a nine-in-ten chance to win the primary. He notes that over recent weeks prediction markets have rated Obama’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination at about four-in-five, and that Clinton's victory in Pennsylvania has not changed this. Indeed, Wolfers motes; "markets rate Clinton the real loser from the six week campaign in Pennsylvania: her chances of winning the nomination were as high as 29 percent following those earlier victories; today they are down to 18 percent". Wolfers then makes the bold assertion (sic) that "looking forward, prediction markets suggest that Obama and Clinton are likely to trade victories over coming weeks. Currently Obama is favored in North Carolina, Oregon, and Montana, while Clinton is favored to win Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky. Simple oberservations indeed.

2008 Kentucky Derby