Next Labour Leader Betting Market
Jeremy Corbyn's reign at the head of the market has proved to be short lived. In what is a lightly traded, highly volatile betting market, the implied probability of Jeremy Corbyn becoming Next Labour Leader is now only 36%, having been as high as 50% on Saturday 1 August. The money has come for the charmless Burnham, who is back into clear favourite, with Cooper now very much on the drift. Two factors are at work here; 1: A realisation that Corbyn’s eventual share of the vote will be lower than his current share of constituency nominations; 2: A belief that many Labour supporters will at the last minute "come to their senses" in response to demands made by senior party apparatchiks.
It cannot be ruled out that party insiders are manipulating the market in order to give the impression that the tide has turned in favour of Burnham, and that accordingly, the implied probabilities reflect what people want to happen, rather than what will actually happen. Caution is therefore advised when trading.
Next Labour Leader Implied Probability (%)
Source: Betfair and UK Bookmakers. 03/08/2015
Looking ahead to the 2016 U.S. election, we provide a first snapshot of the action in the betting markets. The implied probability of Hilary Clinton becoming President is currently 47%, whilst that for Jeb Bush is 22%. The supposed surge in support for Donald Trump, reported on by the likes of Zerohedge ("If his poll numbers hold, Trump will be there six months from now when the Sweet 16 is cut to the Final Four, and he will likely be in the finals") is finally starting to be reflected in the betting market. Trump is at odds with much of the Republican establishment after a series of incendiary comments, including his mocking of senator John McCain’s experience as a tortured prisoner of war in Vietnam. The implied probability of Donald Trump becoming President is now 4%. At this point in time, the smart money is going on Clinton, pure and simple, regardless of the fact that she is seeing her favorability ratings collapse at the present time. Bernie Sanders who is bounding up the popularity ladder, rising from 12% to 24% favorability in a matter weeks, is yet to see much support in the US presidential betting market. The implied probability of Bernie Sanders becoming President is currently 6%.
2016 U.S. Election Implied Probabilities.
Source: Bettingmarket.Com analysis. 03/08/2015.